Success in business – and in almost every aspect of life – is a function of two things we can control – and one that we cannot – at least not directly, and that is luck.

Luck is the reminder that we are all subject to the random and enormous force of nature. Like the hurricanes that take aim for the eastern seaboard and veer off towards the open ocean sparing millions of people from the dangerous, even catastrophic impact.

While we cannot stop or control the force of a hurricane, we can prepare for its impact. From long-term preparation such as how and where we engineer and construct structures to be sustainable and withstand the punishment of raging water and wind – to emptying stores of water, batteries, and bread to weather the storm and its immediate aftermath – to planned and unplanned evacuations – it is relatively easy to prepare for what we expect might happen.

When we are “lucky” all that preparation is for naught. People remove the boards from their windows and the sandbags from where the water might head and get back to their normal everyday lives. A modicum of intelligence, a healthy dose of fear, and a basic need for self-preservation make us happy to repeat this exercise over and over – without the need to actually ever suffer a great storm’s wrath ourselves. Some become emboldened to steel their resolve not to run and convince themselves they are fully prepared -and there are those among them who have been proven foolishly wrong.

When we are successfully prepared – we might be cognizant that luck also played a role in that too. When we are prepared to learn from our experience – good and bad – we might see that the constraints we managed through were sufficient to push back the threat. Or we might see that that the threat diminished through no effort of our own. We might philosophically reason that we were fortunate to have guessed correctly, or have had the strength, fortitude, or wisdom to counter the forces against us. We recognize that luck goes both ways – assisting and impeding us. We prepare for luck by factoring it into our calculations and plans.

It is more difficult to prepare for what we don’t expect. There are things that approach with little warning or with such infrequency that we allow our guards down or ignore whatever warning we are afforded. There is a practical calculus that suggests we cannot prepare for every eventuality – so we prepared for the most likely and those we fear the most. We choose to accept the risks for things unlikely to happen, and in modern society – we might hedge these bets and choose to insure against the potential losses. Hubris allows us to even imagine that we have won out against the random threats that we see as more likely to impact others than ourselves.

It is most difficult to prepare for what we cannot expect. These are the things we cannot imagine. The collapse of the twin World Trade Center towers was an unimaginable risk – even to those who insured against the potential losses. The recent devastation from a category five hurricane decimating the Bahamas is unimaginable even to those who might see images on television or the Internet.

Parents who have suffered the loss of their children will recount that their anguish is unimaginable – and the many atrocities committed on societies through the ages remain unimaginable – even as they have been repeated time and again.

We might refuse to acknowledge what we can see – proverbially hiding our heads in the sand and pretending that what we don’t see isn’t happening. And people will ignore or pretend not to see what they do witness – either through learned helplessness, fear of becoming victims themselves – or simply out of cowardly or callous indifference.

Preparation for what we cannot expect is a matter of character. This is where leadership comes to account.

Beyond luck – the two things we can and must control are our capacity to competently manage and our ability to effectively lead.

Management is a matter of controlling things that we can – while leadership is a function of influencing the behavior of people – which is high among the list of things we cannot control.

Preparation is a matter of both. Necessary competencies and the process for acquiring, developing, and maintaining them are the result of management. But how competencies transform into accomplishment is all leadership. The behaviors that inform that transformation are conscientiousness or the belief that what we do is driven by a purpose that transcends our personal needs and interests which then gives way to grit – the drive to push beyond where we are otherwise comfortable. The role of leadership is to inspire both.

Some people perform to their fullest potential and even strive to expand their potential solely driven by their internal sense of purpose. They are highly effective at leading themselves and accomplishing things that matter most. They are exceptional and rare.

Most people find inspiration through the leadership provided by external forces that offer purpose and provide meaning informs that purpose. These forces might be groupthink or social norms – and sometimes the seductive power of an effective leader – who might themselves be driven by either intrinsic or extrinsic inspiration.

Inspiration is always sourced from within us. Like any belief or thought it is intangible: it has no mass, no weight, and no form. It is not transactional. You cannot give, take or exchange inspiration. But leaders cultivate inspiration in others in order to influence them by using the power of imagination.

In the book Sapiens, Yuval Noah Harari effectively makes the argument that imagined realities have the power to rival the forces of nature. The concepts of nations, boundaries, property, laws, and currency are all products of imagined realities. What we imagine becomes powerful when we find people who first agree with ideas we create and put forth – and are then willing to enforce those creations. In many cases – imagined reality is actually more powerful than nature in that we can control it.

Inspiration is also a product of imagination. We imagine that something we want to see change or be different in the future and then also imagine that we can make a meaningful contribution towards accomplishing whatever it is that must happen. Leadership is what provides the meaning that makes what we want necessary, and then helps people imagine that what we believe is necessary is also possible.

The real power of influence that a leader wields is in the capacity to inspire others to stretch their capacity to believe what may be possible – and then have them believe that it is necessary to accomplishing those things. This is how leaders help others find meaning and purpose and inspire conscientiousness.

Competent leaders then extend that influence by helping connect that sense of purpose to the level of performance necessary to accomplish what matters most. Leadership stokes the conscientiousness within people and elevates their performance by causing people to get comfortable with the idea of being uncomfortable. Leaders can inspire others to learn what they need to know, sharpen the skills required to get things done, nurture the talent that enhances one’s learning and practice- and challenge people to find the grit that separates those who might be able to from those who actually do.

Competence is the application of our competencies in order to accomplish things that matter – and especially the things that matter most.

No amount or degree of management can offset a deficit of leadership. No system regardless of how automated or autonomous can make people competent – and attempts to employ systems to compensate for people’s incompetence tends to exacerbate dysfunction by increasing their incompetence. Systems cannot function in a vacuum of leadership.

The more complex the systems we develop and employ – the greater the need for both expertise and competence in order to maintain and sustain those systems.

Leaders must be competent managers of things that support how people perform. To be fully effective, a leader must provision the tools and other resources required for people to perform competently in order to accomplish what is needed. Highly competent people – those who perform virtuosically – will typically provision and inspire themselves.

Highly effective leaders are capable of attracting this caliber of performer – or what Dr. Lee Thayer refers to as ‘bricoleurs’ – people who accomplish whatever needs to be done – with whatever resources are at hand and without making excuses. The extreme competence that drives exceptionally high performance in some people (and organizations) is a byproduct of leaders who can use their own imagination and creativity to capture the imagination of others to instill a deep sense of purpose that is the foundation for meaningful and significant positive accomplishments.

The extreme weather we have been experiencing in recent years is a good indication of the VUCA conditions we increasingly find throughout the entirety of the world today. The volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity that challenge our ability to effectively manage and lead change is what demands leaders to employ creativity in our approaches to all problems. Reactive tendencies fail in the face of a VUCA storm. Intellectual humility, agility, and flexible thinking are the new competencies needed for competent leadership.

We had still better be lucky – but those who can employ creative solutions to management problems and inspire people to be prepared for whatever opportunities or challenges the next storm brings are the heroic leaders we need to navigate the sea of changes we might encounter and lead en-route to the kind of wondrous future that challenges our imaginations.

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Phil Liebman is the Founder and CEO at ALPS Leadership – We Guide CEO’s and Their Leadership Teams to Become Exceptionally Competent Leaders and High-Performance Organizations

www.ALPSLeadership.com

Phil is also been a Group Chairman with Vistage Worldwide since 2005 – where he helps leaders realize their potential by learning with and from other leaders. He is the author of the soon-to-be published book, “Cultivating MoJo: How competent leaders inspire exceptional performance.”