“When you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras.” My daughter shared this adage with me when she was studying medicine. It is taught to all medical students to emphasize that they should first look for the more likely problems and solutions. The phrase, coined by Nobel laureate Dr. Theodore Woodward, is grounded in the philosophical principle of Occam’s razor, which suggests that when faced with two competing theories, it is preferable to pursue the simpler one. It warns against overthinking and missing what may be simple and obvious. In my experience, underthinking or failing to fully think things through is a far more serious issue.
My professional work focuses entirely on helping leaders think more effectively. Many systems and tools are designed to improve efficiency by eliminating as much time thinking as possible. It makes perfect sense to practice rote skills that inform repetitive tasks and eliminate being slowed down by unnecessarily thinking about your actions. Learning to drive a car is a perfect example; you begin by having a long checklist in your head that you run through before placing the vehicle in drive and depressing the accelerator. This eventually becomes a matter of habit. However, if you stop paying attention or allow yourself to be distracted, you will likely cause a collision.
Upsetting the balance between thinking too much and not enough often has terrible consequences. In many cases, the solution is learning to replace bad habits with good ones. This particularly applies to the habitual ways we think about things.
In an increasingly VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) world, decision-makers are often overwhelmed with difficult choices that require careful consideration and urgent action. In the face of complex problems, seeking equally complex solutions, looking for zebras, and looking past the horses may feel necessary. However, there is also a risk when oversimplifying things. As M.L Mencken points out, “For every complex problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong.” It is often the case that there are no easy answers.
I have met a few courageous, highly accomplished leaders who think differently than most other people. I don’t believe people are born to think like them. It takes a combination of raw intelligence to disambiguate complex problems and emotional intelligence to convince others to accept novel ideas.
It takes courage to challenge conventional thinking and the status quo. It’s always easier to make people feel comfortable by staying in your lane, coloring within the lines, and doing what’s familiar and expected. But it’s vital that we continuously innovate and discover better means of problem-solving. Leading change in a VUCA world requires agility, conscientiousness, and a bold vision for the future that requires a new and higher level of thinking.
Today, it can no longer be just about zebras or horses. We need leaders who think of zebras and horses and surround themselves with a competent team ready to embrace uncertainty, manage the expected and ordinary, and continuously strive to be extraordinary.
###
